Harden expected, 黑天鵝與莫非

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季後賽(playoff, postseason) 前的調查, 超過七成的專家以及多數的評論都認為
火箭隊(Rocket)能夠擊敗拓荒者隊(Trail Blazer) 晉級第二輪 ...

但

關鍵第六戰 , 最後0.9秒 球權回到拓荒者隊 ,
Damian Lillard 的壓哨三分球(buzzer-beating three-pointer) 擊沉了火箭升空的夢想 ,
這算是 黑天鵝事件嗎 (Black swan event) ?
應該不算,  Damian Lillard 是NBA菜鳥球季(freshman/rookie season)
三分球紀錄的保持人 ,  2012-2013 NBA球季 投進185個三分球, 此外也是當年的新人王
(rookie of the year), 得分超過1500分, 助攻超過500次 ...
不過這有點 事後諸葛/馬後炮 (hindsight, knew-it-all-along), 畢竟沒人?會料到最後的0.9秒
初入NBA第二個球季(sophomore)的新人能夠像大嘴Reggie Miller 執行絕殺!

也許火箭教頭Kevin McHale有想到要防範這個最糟的情況(the worst case) , 才會讓身高206cm的前鋒 Chandler Parsons  去防守 191cm 的後衛  Damian Lillard , 如此說來, 這算是莫非定律(Murphy's Law)嗎?

也許火箭升空受阻 要歸咎到第一戰與第二戰 James Harden 失常? 或者該說 Harden在季後賽的正常表現 一如之前在雷霆隊時的季後賽 --  as unstable as expected ? 其實Harden的得分還是不少, 今年季後賽最低17分, 最高37分, 但命中率/穩定性/得分與持球時間比 ...

So, Rocket needs hardening as Harden does.


*** SSL needs hardening as well, see the warning about the insecure implementation of SSL on some versions of PHP.


http://forwardcenter.net/playoff-predictions-few-pick-portland-to-advance/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2031424-houston-rockets-playoff-schedule-2014-tv-info-and-predictions-for-first-round

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/03/damian-lillards-buzzer-beating-3-pointer-gives-trail-blazers-their-first-playoff-series-win-in-14-years-video/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damian_Lillard

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01/gamelog/2014/

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Something should not happened did happen
something unexpected did happen
something unexpected will still happen indeed

After something unexpected had happened :
something should occur occurred
something expected occurred
something expected will still occur sometime, timely or not

It is kind of accepting, adapting, self-cheating or hardening?

//===
機關算盡
善惡分明
龍飛鳳舞
雪泥鴻爪